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Price-cut timing may reveal more than total days. A seller who reduced recently could be testing whether that brings buyers back and may resist another drop. No reduction after 71 days could mean stubborn pricing, little urgency, or simply confidence that the right buyer will appear.

That should produce a much cleaner comparison. I’d add three simple outcomes at month 24: keep the existing loan after the reset, refinance, or sell. You don’t need to predict which will happen; the point is to see which quote becomes painful under each outcome. The lowest APR may still win, but...