Does 45 days signal a change in this €526,200–€789,400 Paris segment?

[hugo.linden]

A small update to my March 2025 notes has raised a more basic question about the group I am tracking. The listings are described as Paris coastal homes, although that label may be too vague to support a meaningful comparison.

Asking prices range from €526,200 to €789,400, and the current marketing period is about 45 days. Transaction costs materially affect the buyer's budget, while reliable completed-sale information is harder to obtain than listing data.

Before drawing anything from the 45-day figure, would it be better to define the geography more tightly and then separate completed sales from withdrawn stock? I would also like to account for condition, since one unusually good or poor property could skew a narrow sample.

 

[DirectRoom]

I would treat 45 days as property-level variation for now. A marketing period says little without knowing how many homes completed, were withdrawn, or had their prices cut. A small group can also be shifted heavily by one unusually attractive or badly presented property.

 

[drawsAndKite]

What does “coastal” mean in this Paris group? That boundary needs clearing up before comparing anything, because Paris itself is not coastal. Are these homes outside Paris being marketed to Paris buyers, or properties within a particular search category? Also, is 45 days the average, median, or age of current listings?

 

[walksAndOak]

I partly disagree with dismissing the fees point. Even if the monthly headline is steady, transaction costs can change what buyers are willing to offer within a fixed total budget. That still does not establish a market turn, though. You would need completed prices relative to the final asking prices, not just the original advertisements.

 

[saveTheVale]

A simple listing-by-listing sheet may get you further than a citywide figure. Record first asking price, each reduction date, current status, days advertised, condition, and the narrow neighbourhood boundary. Keep withdrawals separate from completed sales; otherwise disappearing stock can look like demand.

 

[horizon.clever]

Condition could explain much of the spread at these prices. A ready-to-occupy property and one needing substantial work may share a postcode and asking band but attract completely different buyers. I would split the group by condition before deciding whether 45 days means anything.

 

[NicoPage]

Buyer financing and seller motivation are the other missing pieces. A seller testing an ambitious price can wait, while someone needing a timely sale may reduce sooner. Likewise, an agreed deal is not the same as a completed one. If the available data stop when a listing disappears, the outcome remains ambiguous.

 

[cairn.common]

March 2025 alone feels too narrow for calling an early change. New-listing volume matters: 45 days can look slow when fresh supply rises, even if completed-sale activity has not weakened. I would compare several entry cohorts and measure each from its first listing date rather than using the age of everything currently advertised.

 

[daily_cedar]

The most useful next step is probably to define the geography, state how the 45 days were calculated, and publish the number of properties in the group. Then track four outcomes separately: completed, still marketed, withdrawn, and reduced. If later cohorts show earlier price cuts alongside fewer completions—and the condition mix is stable—that would be more persuasive than one March snapshot.