Hong Kong retail units: what does a 6.6% move after 53 days mean?

[XaviReed]

The 6.6% movement surprised me more than the 53-day marketing period, because it made me question whether these Hong Kong retail units belong in one comparison at all. The asking prices run from HK$3,962,000 to HK$5,944,000, but renovation and even small shifts in location may be affecting buyer interest.

My first thought was that slower units had simply been priced too ambitiously. That becomes less convincing if withdrawn listings are missing or if sellers have very different reasons for selling. How tightly should I draw the neighbourhood boundary, and what would distinguish genuine negotiation from buyers abandoning one unit for another?

 

[XaviReed]

One addition: I don’t want to treat 53 days as an automatic signal that a seller will cut. Withdrawn units could make supply look tighter than it is, and seller motivation may explain more than condition. I’m particularly interested in which comparison would be more useful here—recent completed sales or the volume of new listings coming on.

 

[bikesAndEcho]

I’d start with completed sales, then use new-listing volume as context. Active asking prices only show what sellers hope to achieve. Also track withdrawals separately; otherwise an unsold unit that disappears can be mistaken for demand. Buyers can move on only when the alternatives are genuinely comparable within the same small area.

 

[PrimeNote]

I’m not convinced renovation is the main dividing line. With retail property, your neighbourhood boundaries may still be too broad, so unlike units are being grouped together. How are you measuring the 53 days: from the first advert, or from the latest relisting? And did the 6.6% movement occur before or after buyers had time to arrange financing?

 

[rue_hope]

One more split raises a useful question: does the 6.6% still appear when condition and very small location bands are considered separately? I would record the original asking price, each reduction, any withdrawal or relisting, and the completed price where one is available.

Financing delays and seller motivation are harder to classify, but even brief notes may explain why similar units had different outcomes. The most important issue is avoiding a misleading 53-day measure, because a reset after relisting cannot be corrected later unless the original advert date was captured.