Hong Kong warehouses: bid now or wait after a 3.2% fall?

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I’m deciding whether to bid now or wait for more stock. The Hong Kong warehouses I’m tracking are listed from HK$7,051,000 to HK$10,580,000, with roughly 15 days on market and a reported -3.2% movement. Negotiated discounts seem highly sensitive to condition. Is local supply driving that spread more than headline demand? Please include the neighbourhood and warehouse type if sharing a comparison.
 
Local supply is a plausible explanation, but 15 days alone cannot support it. Is that time to an accepted offer, removal from advertising, or completion? Recent completed sales would be more useful than active asking prices for deciding whether to bid.
 
What is actually included in the HK$7,051,000–HK$10,580,000 set? Unit size, building, floor and whether each listing is a strata unit or something larger could explain much of the spread before neighbourhood supply enters the picture.
 
I’d be careful with the apparently quick turnover. A warehouse withdrawn after 15 days is not evidence of a willing buyer. Track removals separately, then see whether the same unit reappears with different wording or a revised price.
 
Price-cut timing matters too. If reductions usually happen around the second week, the 15-day figure may reflect sellers testing an ambitious price and adjusting quickly, rather than genuinely scarce stock.
 
Condition needs defined categories rather than a general description. Separate units needing substantial work, usable but dated space, and refurbished stock. Otherwise one poor-condition listing can make the negotiated discount look like a neighbourhood effect.
 
Buyer financing could also distort the comparison. Two similar offers are not equally attractive if one depends on a slower or less certain funding process. That may produce a larger apparent discount without saying much about wider warehouse demand.
 
One more column may create a useful question: what does the seller appear to need from the transaction? The same bid can look acceptable to an owner carrying an empty warehouse and unattractive to someone receiving rent with no urgent reason to sell.

That is a counterexample to reading every discount as evidence of weaker demand in the neighbourhood. I would record whether the unit is vacant or occupied, ask why it has come to market, and keep signs of a time-sensitive sale separate from condition, financing and local supply.
 
I’m not convinced supply is necessarily the main driver. If financed buyers become more cautious, condition problems carry greater weight because the purchase and subsequent work both need funding. That demand-side effect could create the same pattern you’re describing.
 
The withdrawn-stock point is especially important. I would count three outcomes after the 15-day mark: still active, visibly reduced, or removed. Only move a removed listing into the sold group if there is reliable evidence of a transaction.
 
Can you match any of these listings to recent completed sales in the same building? That would control for neighbourhood and many building differences. Even a small number of close matches is more informative than comparing unrelated warehouses across Hong Kong.
 
A simple table would help: neighbourhood, building, warehouse subtype, size, condition, first asking price, latest asking price, days advertised and final outcome. Leave the outcome blank where it is unknown rather than assuming removal means sale.
 
One addition to that table: preserve the date and amount of every advertised reduction. Using only the latest asking price hides whether a seller made one serious cut or several small changes before the listing disappeared.
 
What exactly does the -3.2% measure—asking prices, completed prices, or a broader index? Also, over what period? It should not be used as the negotiating target until its basis matches the warehouses being considered.
 
Neighbourhood boundaries may be doing more work than expected. If a sample crosses several local warehouse clusters, label each listing by its actual area rather than using Hong Kong as one market. Access and building differences can then be considered separately instead of being buried in the average.
 
New-listing volume would test the supply theory better than the active count on one day. Record how many genuinely new units enter the chosen areas each week, while excluding relisted properties. Rising entries and accumulating unsold stock would strengthen the case for waiting.
 
When contacting a seller, I’d ask two neutral questions: how long the unit has been continuously marketed, and whether the price has changed. The answers may not be complete, but they can expose a relisting that otherwise looks only a few days old.
 
For the bid itself, estimate the condition work separately and deduct it from the value you would assign to a comparable usable warehouse. Don’t just copy the largest observed discount; it may reflect defects that the target property does not share.
 
The listed range is broad enough that absolute prices may mislead. Normalise comparisons for usable space and keep unlike warehouse formats apart. A cheaper total price is not automatically the better negotiating opportunity.
 
Agreed with Yara. I’d build a small matrix: neighbourhood on one side, condition category on the other, then place only genuinely comparable units inside it. If the discount pattern remains after that split, the local-supply argument becomes much more credible.
 
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