Is waiting for a housing crash a plan or just market timing for a four-bedroom Manila townhouse?

[EarnestBrick]

I keep hearing “wait for prices to fall,” but rent and borrowing costs have also moved during my search. I can afford a suitable four-bedroom townhouse in Manila now, although it looks expensive against historical prices. For those who waited or proceeded, which personal thresholds mattered more than predicting the market? I’m particularly interested in completed sales near Manila rather than asking prices or broad headlines.

 

[field.full]

If the home works for several years and the full monthly cost leaves room for repairs, emergencies and ordinary life, that is a more usable threshold than calling the bottom. A lower future price may not help if financing is dearer or you have paid substantial rent while waiting. I would compare buying now with renting for a fixed period, not with an imagined crash price.

 

[xavi_flint]

How wide is “near Manila,” and are you comparing like with like? Townhouse prices can vary sharply by area, development, condition, parking and completion status. Also ask when each sale actually closed. A small group of old transactions may say little about today, while current listings only show what sellers hope to receive.

 

[saveTheCorner]

I’d push back slightly on the “buy if affordable” argument. Affordability today does not remove the risk of needing to sell during a weak market, especially with a four-bedroom property that may have a narrower buyer pool in some locations. Before deciding, collect recent completed transactions from the closest comparable developments, note how many sales occurred, and separate seasonal noise from a sustained change. Then stress-test the payment and likely holding period. If the purchase only works with quick appreciation or a near-term refinancing assumption, waiting is sensible; if it works without either, the crash prediction matters less.