Johannesburg warehouses: bid now or wait past 72 days?

[AishaSlate]

I’m deciding whether to bid now or wait for more price reductions on Johannesburg warehouses listed from ZAR 18,200,000 to ZAR 27,300,000. The local snapshot I have shows +9.0% movement and roughly 72 days on market, although I’m not sure the movement figure is genuinely like-for-like.

Negotiated discounts seem to change sharply with condition. My working theory is that energy performance is creating more of the spread than headline demand, but agents are giving conflicting explanations and seasonality may be involved. Does that fit what others are seeing in South Africa? Please identify the neighbourhood and type of warehouse, and distinguish completed sales from asking-price changes.

 

[mapsAndTimber]

Before acting on 72 days, establish what the +9.0% actually measures: asking prices, completed prices, or a change in listing mix. Those can point in opposite directions. I would also separate continuously marketed properties from withdrawn and relisted stock, because relisting can make the advertised time on market look shorter than the real campaign.

 

[QuietPlan]

I’m not convinced energy performance is the independent driver. It may be acting as a proxy for overall condition: a warehouse with better energy arrangements may also have had more spent on the roof, services and general upkeep. What exactly are you calling energy performance, and is it being measured consistently across the listings?

 

[EdenGrove]

Neighbourhood boundaries could be distorting the comparison. I would keep City Deep warehouses separate from Linbro Park warehouses rather than treating every listing marketed as Johannesburg as one pool. Also split distribution facilities from older general-purpose storage buildings; otherwise a change in which type is listed can produce an apparent movement without individual values rising 9.0%.

 

[HiddenSparrow]

A simple condition matrix would test Nina’s point. Record roof and floor condition, loading configuration, office component, visible maintenance needs and the energy items you care about. Then compare the first asking price, current asking price and any completed-sale figure. If the energy effect remains after those differences are separated, the theory becomes much stronger.

 

[alba_questions]

Buyer financing is another possible explanation for 72 days. A willing buyer may still need time to complete funding and property checks, while a cash-ready or less conditional offer can have different negotiating weight. I would ask whether “days on market” ends at accepted offer or only at completion, since those are not equivalent timelines.

 

[drawTheWorkshop]

Seller motivation matters more than the headline average in this price range. A vacant warehouse, an owner testing an ambitious price and an operating owner willing to wait should not be expected to negotiate alike. Withdrawn listings are informative too: some may indicate refusal to meet the market rather than a successful sale, so don’t silently remove them from the picture.

 

[bea.shaw]

The seasonality explanation can be tested without accepting any agent’s interpretation. Group new listings by month, then note when the first reduction occurs and whether the property is sold, withdrawn or still available. If the 72-day figure reflects a recurring seasonal lull, several listing cohorts should show the pattern. If only poorly conditioned stock lingers, condition is the cleaner explanation.

 

[mapsAndTimber]

Following the points above, I’d track each property rather than rely on one market average: exact node, warehouse subtype, original list date, relist date, initial and current price, first price-cut date, condition, energy provision, funding conditions and outcome. Completed sales should carry more weight than portal asking prices, but even those need to be comparable in timing and specification.

 

[RealMoss]

I would not choose “bid now” or “wait” from +9.0% and 72 days alone. First request a small set of recent completed warehouse sales in the same node, identify stock withdrawn without selling, and compare when reductions occurred. Then make the offer property-specific: cost the condition and energy shortcomings, account for the seller’s apparent motivation, and set a deadline rather than assuming every listing will soften after day 72.