Manila 4-bed serviced apartment at PHP 80.62m: adjusting thin comparables

writesAndReed

Property investor
I’d like to establish a defensible apartment-only value, but the evidence is thin. The property is a 135 m², four-bedroom serviced apartment in Manila with an asking price of PHP 80,620,000. It has good natural light and a strong location, although the interior is tired and there may be future reserve contributions. The headline figure works out at about PHP 597,000 per m² if parking is left bundled in.

There are three active listings and just one closed transaction to work from. How would you adjust for the 135 m² floor area and the condition without creating false precision? I’m also trying to establish whether parking was included on the same basis, how much lease term remains, and whether the sale was in this building. Which of those details would change your estimate most?
 
The closed transaction deserves the most weight, while the listings mainly show what competing sellers hope to achieve. I’d start with a range for the tired condition rather than one exact deduction, then replace that range with room-by-room renovation costs once you have them.

I also wouldn’t scale the value directly by square metres. A larger unit can command a lower rate per square metre, and four bedrooms fitted into 135 m² may have a different layout value from a roomy three-bed. Before making either adjustment, establish whether the sale was in the same building, included equivalent parking and used the same area definition.
 
Does the PHP 80.62m include parking, and did the completed comparable include the same number of spaces? At this price, parking could distort the apartment-only comparison. I’d also want the current service charge, any announced reserve contribution, and confirmation that all listings measure the 135 m² on the same basis.
 
I’m not convinced by an automatic 5–10% condition deduction. “Dated” can mean cosmetic finishes, or it can hide expensive bathrooms, kitchen work and building systems. Cost the obvious work room by room, then consider whether buyers would demand an additional inconvenience discount. Also inspect the layout: four bedrooms within 135 m² may not compare cleanly with a more spacious three-bed.
 
For me, the fact most capable of changing the valuation is the tenure and any remaining lease or operating arrangement attached to the serviced apartment. That can matter more than finishes. I’d want the appraisal to separate the real estate value from parking and from any furniture or service-related component, while confirming the position locally rather than assuming every serviced unit is structured alike.
 
“Manila” is too broad for the location adjustment. Even nearby buildings can differ in access, outlook, noise and natural light. Since light is one of this unit’s strengths, compare orientation and obstruction rather than assigning a generic location premium. Balcony or other private outdoor space should also be matched explicitly; don’t bury it inside the floor-area adjustment.
 
I’d make a small scenario table rather than choose one valuation now. Start with the completed sale, normalize its parking and area basis, then show separate low/base/high entries for condition, light, micro-location and outdoor space. Add the capitalized impact of service charges only after confirming what they cover. If the resulting range is wide, that is useful information: it means the offer should reflect uncertainty rather than false precision.
 
The roughly PHP 597,000/m² figure is only a starting arithmetic result. Before using the completed sale, you need its date, actual internal area, condition, parking allocation and whether it was an arm’s-length transaction. If those details are unavailable, I would give that sale less weight and avoid letting three unsold asking prices pull the estimate up.
 
One further point after Elena’s scenario-table suggestion: compare total ownership costs alongside the purchase price. A unit that appears cheaper after a condition deduction may still be worse value if service charges, reserve contributions, insurance and near-term refurbishment are materially heavier. I’d ask the appraiser to state assumptions for each of those items so the valuation range can be challenged rather than accepted as one opaque number.
 
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