Nairobi market check: -6.1% movement and 30 days on market?

[cyclesAndFinch]

I’m comparing Nairobi new-build flats listed from KES 28,380,000 to KES 42,570,000. The snapshot shows a -6.1% movement and roughly 30 days on market, while negotiated discounts appear to vary sharply with condition.

My working theory is that energy performance explains more of that spread than headline demand. Does that hold up, or are financing and seller motivation stronger factors? Please include the neighbourhood and flat type, and say whether any figures are from completed sales rather than asking prices.

 

[countTheAnchor]

Thirty days alone is hard to interpret if withdrawn and relisted stock is missing. I’d also be cautious about attributing the discount to energy performance: overall condition may be standing in for several differences between flats.

Is the -6.1% based on completed prices, current asking prices, or reductions from the original ask? Also, which neighbourhood boundaries are included in that KES 28,380,000–42,570,000 range?

 

[eli_details]

I’m less convinced by the energy explanation. Buyer financing and the seller’s reason for selling could affect the negotiated figure even where two flats have similar condition. New-build units in different developments should not be pooled simply because they share a broad neighbourhood label.

A cleaner comparison would match flat type and development, then record the first price cut, days to that cut, withdrawals, and whether the eventual buyer needed financing.

 

[countTheAnchor]

Agreed on separating developments, though energy performance can still be tested rather than dismissed. I’d build two small tables: active and withdrawn listings in one, completed sales in the other. For each flat, record the exact neighbourhood, type, original and current ask, first reduction date, condition, stated energy features, and financing status if known. That should show whether 30 days and the -6.1% movement survive like-for-like comparison.