Rent increase versus tenant retention for a detached home in Osaka

I’d build a simple twelve- and twenty-four-month comparison: current rent with retention, modest increase with retention, and market asking rent after turnover. Include vacancy and refurbishment separately so you can see which assumption drives the result.
 
Be strict about the listings used. Advertisements that have remained available may indicate prices the market has not accepted. Similar detached homes that disappear quickly are more informative, although you still may not know the final agreed rent.
 
Could the tenant offer something other than the requested amount, such as accepting a smaller increase while committing to a longer period? Whether that structure is suitable depends on the lease, but inviting a counterproposal may keep the discussion cooperative.
 
That could work, though I would avoid trading away flexibility without understanding the terms. A longer commitment is valuable only if it is valid, clear and suitable for both sides. The simplest outcome may still be a modest rent change with everything else left alone.
 
One more turnover cost: time spent agreeing the condition and settling the deposit. Even where everyone behaves reasonably, move-out creates administration and possible disagreement. It belongs in the retention calculation alongside vacancy and physical work.
 
I would ask a local property manager two separate questions: what similar homes are currently advertised for, and what rent they realistically think this home could secure in its present condition. Those answers may be different. Also ask what notice process they would use for this particular lease.
 
Using Luis’s point, the full gap produces ¥403,200 over twelve occupied months. A vacancy month plus refurbishment can consume much of that annual gain. The full increase therefore only looks compelling if replacement is quick, costs are low and ¥355,200 is actually achievable.
 
Has anyone accounted for the risk that a new tenant pays more but is less reliable or harder on the house? That cannot be priced precisely, but it argues against treating the current tenant as interchangeable. Payment history is part of the asset’s present stability.
 
Yes, although reliability should not become a reason never to adjust rent. I’d assign it a conservative value in the scenario calculations, then make a proposal supported by the property itself. Otherwise the owner may postpone every review until the gap becomes unmanageable.
 
A practical sequence: verify the lease route, narrow the comparable homes, estimate turnover under several vacancy periods, inspect outstanding maintenance, and only then choose an amount. Send a calm written proposal and leave room for the tenant to respond or counter.
 
I would also separate necessary refurbishment from optional upgrading. If the home becomes vacant, some work might have been due anyway and should not all be blamed on turnover. Conversely, cleaning and work caused specifically by reletting belong fully in that scenario.
 
Another caveat on the ¥355,200 figure: does it represent homes with the same equipment and level of upkeep? If the comparables have newer kitchens, bathrooms or climate equipment, the apparent discount may partly reflect condition rather than a below-market tenancy.
 
The thread seems to point toward a defensible compromise rather than a formula: don’t assume asking rent is achievable, don’t ignore a ¥33,600 gap, and don’t undervalue a reliable tenant. Once the lease timing and true comparables are known, propose a smaller documented adjustment and preserve room to negotiate.
 
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