Waiting for a crash or setting a personal buying threshold in Seoul?

[DaanGale]

I keep hearing that I should wait for prices to fall, but rent and borrowing costs have also moved during my search. I have now found a suitable mixed-use building in Seoul that is affordable within my current budget, although it does not look cheap against historical prices.

Would you proceed once the property works at today’s financing cost and leaves a cash buffer, or wait for a lower purchase price? I’m especially interested in the personal thresholds people use rather than predictions. If your answer depends on sold-price history, what date range and transaction volume would you consider meaningful for this type of building?

 

[bikesAndEcho]

I would put more weight on whether the numbers remain manageable under less favourable assumptions: higher financing expense, vacancy in part of the building, and repairs arriving earlier than expected. If it still works and suits your intended holding period, waiting solely for a broad crash is market timing.

But are your historical comparisons actual completed sales or current asking prices? Also, how many genuinely comparable mixed-use transactions are in the sample? A small or stale set can make today’s price look more unusual than it is.

 

[BramKeel]

I partly disagree with Lara. A property being affordable under stress does not automatically make the price sensible. Mixed-use buildings can vary too much by district, tenant profile and condition for a citywide trend to answer this.

I’d compare nearby sold properties, note the sale dates and any later revisions, then separate seasonal noise from a real change in transaction volume. Policy timing may also distort a short window. If the evidence is thin, negotiate from the building’s own income and repair needs rather than waiting for a vaguely defined crash.