What changed in Tokyo this month? My sample is at 26 days (need advice)

[planTheWall]

Recent completed sales seem more reliable than active listings, but using only those leaves me with a very small comparison set. Keeping every online listing gives me more data, yet risks counting stale or withdrawn stock as genuine buyer activity.

I am following Tokyo mixed-use buildings priced from ¥53,860,000 to ¥80,780,000. The sample currently points to about 26 days to secure a buyer, with several outliers that may relate to property tax. New-listing volume has increased, although few of the additions suit what I would buy. How would you separate a neighbourhood-level change from seller motivation or listings that simply disappeared?

 

[GoodSignal]

Completed sales should carry more weight, but they won’t answer everything unless you also separate withdrawn stock from genuine sales. Otherwise a listing that vanished can make the market look faster than it was. Do you have price-cut dates and original asking prices? A reduction shortly before the property disappears tells a different story from 26 days at an unchanged price.

 

[field_book]

Once you separate completed sales from withdrawals, the usable sample may be too small for a broad Tokyo conclusion. That is still better than treating every vanished listing as a buyer found within 26 days.

I would keep the analysis narrow: use consistent neighbourhood boundaries, then record condition, financing suitability, original price and any reduction before removal. If only a handful remain comparable, treat the 26-day result as a guide for those buildings rather than for the wider market.