Guess the sale price: 3-bed, 165 m² apartment

L

LightCorner

First-time buyer
I can see two reasonable approaches here: discount for the average condition, or stay fairly close to the asking price because the apartment has been available for only 16 days. It is a 3-bed in the local market, measuring 165 m² and listed at ZAR 9,191,000.

There is only one completed sale to use as a reference, so this is a guess rather than a full valuation. Give one predicted sale price and name the two details carrying the most weight. I am particularly interested in whether the large floor area offsets the condition, and how much the bedroom count matters without better evidence of local supply.
 
ZAR 8,850,000. My two factors are the average condition, which leaves room for a buyer to negotiate, and the short 16-day listing period, which gives the seller little reason to accept a steep discount yet.
 
ZAR 8,600,000, based on the asking price and the unusually large 165 m² floor area. That said, the missing fact is local supply: if several similar 3-beds are available, the size alone may not protect the price.
 
ZAR 8,995,000. I’m weighting 16 days on market and the 3-bedroom layout. I disagree that average condition necessarily produces a large cut this early; it may simply stop the apartment achieving full asking price.
 
ZAR 8,450,000. Average condition is my main reason, followed by the ZAR 9,191,000 asking price looking precise enough that it may already reflect a seller’s target rather than a round starting point. Without a completed comparable sale, though, every guess here has a wide margin.
 
Are we guessing the recorded sale price or what the seller receives after transaction fees? Those are different figures. I’d exclude fees from the valuation guess because they do not change what a buyer agrees to pay. Also, has there been a price reduction during those 16 days?
 
Agreed on excluding fees. If the contest is about sale price, transaction costs should not be quietly subtracted from our guesses. They matter to the parties, but they tell us little about demand for this particular apartment.
 
One more caveat on the 16 days: it is evidence of almost nothing yet unless an offer has already failed. I used it only to assume the seller still has patience. After a reduction or a much longer listing period, I’d put considerably more weight on time.
 
Good distinction. The target is the eventual recorded sale price, not the seller’s net proceeds after fees. I deliberately haven’t supplied a reduction history or a completed comparable sale, so those remain unknown rather than assumptions. That makes this more a test of how people handle sparse listing information than a precise valuation exercise.
 
Then I’m keeping ZAR 8,995,000. The clarification strengthens my view that fees should not pull the estimate down, while the lack of any supplied reduction means I won’t treat the 16 days as evidence of seller pressure.
 
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